yogatrader

That Is All

2011-06-03T07:13:00.000-07:00

Yeah, okay the longs (me) are getting smoked today. Sorry.

Not really.

The previous call below is now down. The easy thing to do if you know me is mea culpa: I'm wrong, get short, move on.

No.

QE 3-100 is inevitable. And yeah, maybe you take a beating for a month, but you do NOT want US cash.

That is the bubble. Repeat. The US Dollar is the bubble

Gold, always working, that's the old/new reserve currency.

I am reversing one trade below as I actually looked at the pricing and did the due diligence.

*Long Facebook at any price.

Everything else is as is, stay long, stay strong.

Uncle Ben will not let you down.

That is all.

Macro-Managed is the New Micro

2011-05-24T20:07:00.000-07:00

Panic?

No way.

The only thing that pisses me off about losing all the epicfaileconomy posts is that I was on the record like 12 separate times telling you to buy stocks, or buy the dip, or buy the f--king dip.

That wasn't an easy call then, it's actually easier now...

This is the most managed tape I've ever seen, you get about a 5% correction then you need to start thinking about getting long again.

The US Dollar is going way, way lower, and that is something that still so many people are not getting.

Gold is great here. The margin hikes on Silver knocking it down 20% are a f--king gift. Buy as much Silver and as much Gold as you can.

If you can't stomach the corrections, stomach it.

You do not want US Dollars until we start selling assets like the Grand Canyon.

The dip. Buy it.

Here's a great pairs trade if you fear the crash: Long AAPL, short LNKD.
Here's another when available: Long Twitter, short Facebook.
Buy the silver miners here: First Majestic: AG.

Buy gold bullion, hold it forever.

We're Back, Fuckerzz.

2011-05-15T17:55:00.000-07:00

Well that worked out well...

Okay, so we've come full circle after a massive total meltdown fail @ epicfaileconomy.

Long story short: we pulled a piece of code out and the site went into an infinite loop of death. After months, several attempts at recovery with the Godaddy people, and then flat out quitting, we just this Friday were able to recover it, and now have a simple landing page there.

We are not fucking with it. Because the problems seen to recur when we revert to the old template and actually start blogging.

Several other reasons have brought us back here to the yogatrader @ blogspot:

1) Yogatrader is an awesome name. And this site still has decent Google ranking even after a prolonged absence.

2) The term "epic" is so over-used at this point that epic is no longer epic. We'd need to start a new site called colossal-epic-mess-disaster-fail-economy.

3) The whole "Living is Failing" meme is now so obvious that we'd rather not beat a dead horse/ human.

4) We want to keep it positive, the epicfail was cathartic and necessary. We believe we were part of an army of truthy-tellers that kind of won the war. Matt Taibbi, Zerohedge and Al Jazeera now have more credibility than the MSM. This was not the case just a few years ago.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!

Not really.

Nothing has changed at the top and likely it never will, but something huge is obviously happening globally. That something is that nobody believes anything the MSM or the Corporatocracy/Gov't says anymore, and that is victory enough. That is a big shift since we started the Crusades here in 2007.

Mary Magdaline is the wife of Christ, mother to the Christ-daughter-child FYI (the original cover-up).

5) Finally, while we do not plan to post with the intensity we did at the Fail, there is still a need for non-insane financial advice and we will give it to you here.

Obviously, we enjoy the process as well, so we thank you for coming back.

We're Moving, Bitchezz.

2010-09-06T17:01:00.000-07:00

Thanks for coming here the past 3 years!!

Yes, that's right, amazing, 3 years of doing the blog thing.

And THE blogspot did well for us, and now it's time to move on.

Seeing as I still don't know how to link here, although I just tried for the millionth time...

Here is the new spot: www.epicfaileconomy.com

Much love to you.

Will keep this site up 4eva, so the skeptics can come take a look at the record.

But likely, no more posts here.

Thank you Google, blogger is an amazing tool, no doubt, the go to spot for new bloggers.

See you all at the Epic Fail.

Peace & OUT!!

NYC First 24

2010-08-12T12:12:00.000-07:00

New mates.

Heart beating faster!

Cash rules. King Dollar...??

Recession Pizza. Best ever. 43rd and 3rd.

Weather on the Ones. NY icon. Hot.

Four of the Eight Horseman.

...of the Apocalypse.

Thank you JPM Morgan!

Deutsche. Douche. Long Euros.

UBS. Long tax evasion.

Etrade. Long idiots.

Recession hits said bailed-out-bankers as Ferrari store near empty -ex Euros looking to unload worthless paper.

Church of Jobs. Our father who art in heaven, hallow be thy name...

Uptown. For the crown, baby...

Oddly enough, NBA store jammed... Long Yao Ming.

Prayer makes sense.

Atlas shrugging.

I'm Lying to You

2010-07-31T17:25:00.000-07:00

This is the most important book I've read and I'm only half-way through it.

The level of misinformation presented by Big Gov and Big Corporate and Big Media has reached catastrophic proportions.

But as Brad Blanton points out, IT'S ALL A LIE. All of it -at the individual level as well, and especially.

Moralism, he says, is killing us.

Our evolutionary predisposition to see truth as a permanent construct is killing us.

Truth changes in the moment, moment by moment. What is important is what is true NOW.

Our learned ability to fit into the mores of our culture, so as to not rock the boat, to be "good" boys and girls is KILLING us.

As children, to be "good", we start lying, and from there we create our "story" built on thousands of fabrications on top of that initial big lie: to be "good" boys and girls.

We carry around this tension, this stress from constantly lying all day, every day, selling ourselves, presenting our best face, never telling the truth.

This is killing us.

A big fucking lie. We are bullshitting each other all day long.

His solution: Start telling the truth. Everything. No withholding. To everyone.

Starting with anything left unsaid in your life ever. I believe this means basically telling off your parents.

Fuck you Mom and Dad!!

And then it means telling your partner everything. So, if you slept with your wife's best friend, you tell your wife all about it, how much fun it was...

Everything. Even your fantasies about your husband's co-worker that you want to fuck.

Let the chips fall...

You won't do it. And it will kill you (so he says).

Radical Honesty.

In our communication, we are constantly selling ourselves. How great we are, how pious, how exemplary, how much better we are than you.

Truth telling he says, is sharing, not selling.

Start telling the truth and you'll get "the unpleasant uncertainty of freedom". Start practicing it all the time, and you'll reach "the paradoxical state... of comfortable uncertainty."

You won't do it. You don't want freedom.

Maybe I don't either...

He does a great job of telling us why he wrote his book -basically to become famous and get power and to hate you. In that vein, I'm gonna do my thing here:

I wanna be famous too. I want to show you how fucking great I am, and how much better I am than you. I want your approval, I want you to love me and envy me at the same time. I want you to think I'm smarter, better looking, out of your league, way too fucking cool for you, way too rich for you...

I want you to read this, see my videos, and say, "Wow, that dude is advanced, quite evolved, I would love to have his approval, and his offspring!!"

I hate you. I am so fucking angry at everything.

I love you. I see beauty everywhere.

There.

I feel better already.

American Dream

2010-07-17T22:48:00.000-07:00

An Australian mate just received his US citizenship. We were laughing about it this morning, asking why the fuck bother...

He's a film maker, living here 18 years, paying taxes, doing all the right things so it was no big deal to get the papers.

Yet, he sees the US collapse coming and has left a relatively healthy economy in Australia... and we both smile, what the fuck...

He was happy, and so was I. The American Dream lives.

Fascinating.

I have been blessed, and cursed, to work for a firm that has access to, or better yet is highly incentivized to get the Contrarian take on world affairs and markets.

Our view is this: The MSM is owned by the Corporations which rule the world, they are nation-states in their own right. Their main objective is to keep you numb, docile and believing everything is okay, fair and balanced, so they can keep selling their wares and looting Sovereign Treasuries.

We (I) are also biased in our worldview, our bias is to challenge anything coming out of the US government, or US media.

Therefore, if the the USG or BP or Goldman Sachs are telling you the truth, then we will be dead wrong in our assessment of world affairs.

An example I can share with you now in real time, is that while you may believe the BP well is capped and all is good, we believe that this is not true.

Why, you may ask? Well we have sources telling us otherwise and of much more massive leaks elsewhere (not on camera). But much more obvious to us than any evidence or credible sources is this:

Corporations are designed to lie to you. So, whatever they say, assume it is the opposite.

Ask Goldman Sach's clients...

Please also know this: The debates you have over this and that, are non-debates, they are smokescreens, distractions. Even the debates that seem real and do pull at your heart-strings like Gay Marriage and fake healthcare are all fucking smokescreens.

You are being manipulated, such that the real issues are never discussed.

Mayer Amschel Rothschild quote: "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."

Learn about this quote and this man, learn about the Federal Reserve, learn how all of it affects everything you do, how it controls you, makes a slave of you and me.

What is heartening though, is that many of you are not buying it either. Less and less of us are swallowing the nonsense that comes out of Big Media and our Dear Leaders.

Many of us realize we are the biggest Banana Republic.

We have Socialism for the rich and connected, awful governance, dumb media, an often ill-informed populace, and lead the league in obesity food product as well as pharmaceuticals to cure said strangely ill populace.

Disaster Capitalism.

Yet they come, they come from across the world, the best and brightest still come...

Why...

Well, contrary to what my firm would say (so now I'm Contrary to Contrarian which makes me mainstream..??) is this:

We are still better. We are still better than Communist China. We are still better than Socialist no-growth Europe. We are still better than no infrastructure India.

We are the least worst still. The New American Dream is "Still better than my home country."

Oye vey. The Dream Lives.

Here Comes The Liquidity Nuke

2010-07-14T19:43:00.000-07:00

Feels like Big Ben is going for it!!

Print or die, bitchezz!!

Americans must take on more debt, must spend more, must consume more, must not let markets fall, must eat more fucking FOOD!! More fucking FOOOOOOOD!!!

Get ye gold while ye can, mates...

Shanti Shanti AngloGold Ashaaaaaaantiiiiii

Hare Ooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Friendly Reminder: Please Everyone Gently Stampede Toward Exits While Screaming. Thank You.

2010-06-30T12:56:00.000-07:00

Please Everyone Calmly Scream and Simultaneously Run For The Exits Hair On Fire.

2010-06-29T14:42:00.000-07:00

Are you enjoying the collapse of Western Style Banana Capitalism?

I for one, am very excited.

It seems that relentless money printing did not provide the expected stimulus.

How surprising!! Zero value was created.

No worries, I know the solution:

More printing!!

Destroyers Shall Not Be Fixers

2010-06-09T19:44:00.000-07:00

Lack of private sector experience is making Obama mad.

It is commendable that he somehow avoided the Disaster Capitalism that made this country tick, but it's crushing him now.

Anyone that has spent a day in the rat race understands this:

If someone fucks up Royally (pun intended) then yes, they should be directed to clean up the mess, but NEVER given responsibility to DIRECT the clean-up.Common sense, if you ever did the Ratatouille...

The reason (and I can't believe I have to explain this to Commander):

The fuck-ups main incentive is to cover their ass, not fix the problem. Ergo, the Taxpayer Bank Bailout Massacre and BP Atlantic Ocean Top Kill.

I'm glad he's mad now. Three Step Solution:
1) Eliminate Geithner and Summers, bring in Volcker like you promised.
2) Eliminate BP, bring in the Russian Nuclear Navy
3) Eliminate your entire Cabinet.
Simple. Kick ass.

Last Week

2010-06-04T18:55:00.000-07:00

It's Not Your Fault, Will.

2010-06-03T21:50:00.000-07:00

No crying.

My argument, my complaint, my whining last post, has been pointed out to be a bit of a cry.

And way simplistic...

Looking back, it's true, I needed a good cry as the Atlantic Ocean was destroyed.

And I put all the blame on Obama which is patently ridiculous. This problem, this mindset, has been in the making for decades.

It's not your fault, Will! It's not your fault!!

This fucking problem we are having, with multiple species extinction, and oil blob Hampton vacays, is symbolic, is karmically appropriate for our time, and it boils down to this...

We are completely unconscious.

We have no reverence for anything. We want cheap oil so we can get to the job we hate, so we can buy the huge fucking TV, such that we can go completely numb to everything.

American Idol, Dancing With the Dead Dolphins, whatever the fuck the distraction du jour is, gimme some of that, baby! My job sucks and my marriage has become a fucking suicide pact, gimme some facebook status updates!

Oooooooohhhh, calm down guy, take it easy, we all deserve a break, it will all be allright, we don't need to understand any of this... Eighth grade math and fourth grade science are unimportant.. With a liberal arts education, you can have it all!

Look, Obama did not cause any of this, not even close, and he was on the right side of most of these issues before he took command. And he is taking the No-Drama analytical approach which is exactly what he ran on, this is exactly what he promised.

But like the banking implosion, his analytic model is this: let the destroyers be the fixers because hey, this is too fucking complicated, they know best... Thank you Henry Paulson. TARP/ ZIRP was the greatest thing ever for Goldman Sachs and what is good for Goldman has obviously been great for mankind! Look at how great things are now. We did it, America!

Irrationally, I was looking for a bit of drama. Sometimes we need some fucking drama. As Spike Lee said, "Go off!" PR matters, it's energy, it's vibration. It fucking matters.

Bill Clinton... fuck even George W. Bush, would have been down there in waders pulling dolphins out of the ocean, tears welling up.

This country needs exactly this: take BP by the fucking neck, say, "Hey fucko, you're done here, Exxon owns you if they can plug this thing, and even if they cannot, you're still done, in all sincerity, go fuck yourself, good luck in prison. No tears."

My best of friends says PR is irrelevant, what matters is practically fixing the problem, and that cutting down Obama is both way simplistic and counter-productive. He's right, realistically, practically... there is nothing Obama can do about this disaster that is years in the making.

Obama was and maybe still is our last hope. He needs our support, and I support our President as I support this amazing country where I get to make my case and project my voice at full volume.

What does matter is this. The country needs him to lead. Go Drama! Stand the fuck up, make us believe this is being handled, so we can get on with it.

Lead.

Stand up to the Corporate Disaster that has marked your Presidency. Risk it all. Risk impeachment. Risk your legacy. At this point, you have absolutely nothing to lose.

Obama Will Not Save You...

2010-05-29T19:32:00.000-07:00

I voted for him too...

Just another Corporatist.

Bank bailouts and BP...

Clueless.

Not that smart, not that conscious. I thought he was our first conscious President...

I was so wrong.

Actually, our founders were the most conscious: Washington, Jefferson, Franklin, Hamilton; they were real mystics, connected to truth, they knew we were all one, and we were all fallible.

Limited government, limited power.

Obama, it turns out, is not that connected. He faked me out too. My apologies.

He's done...

At the time, he was the best choice, no doubt. Unless you voted for Ron Paul or Ralph Nader, then you are true Patriots and we will look to your wisdom next time.

As a matter of fact, those that voted for Paul and Nader last time should be the only only ones allowed to vote next time.

I am forfeiting my voting rights.

Paul voters on the Right and Nader voters on the Left get to vote. Anything in between, i.e. McCain or Obama voters, we failed the IQ test, we're all banned for at least 10 years.

Party Repubs and Dems alike are both the worst, most malignant forms of Corporatism out there.

We need to clean house ASAP.

I forfeit my right to vote for 10 years. I've completely opted out. Good luck, America

The system is imploding any way, fuck it...

Happy Memorial Day, remember the soldiers please, and have fun this Summer.

It's not individuals that are failing, it's governments, we'll get a new one soon, so keep on keeping on.

Hare Om.

Mutually Assured Default

2010-05-26T10:44:00.000-07:00

posted last week on fb, btw.

Run For The Hills.

2010-05-21T17:23:00.000-07:00

Hi there.

I have a bigger responsibility here, I'm finding...

First of all, anyone that tells you they know what the future holds is lying to you.

Including me!!

I only speak in probabilities, please understand. If you're new here, some background is in order, so here ya go:

I've been involved in the financial markets on and off for 10+ years. What a fucking 10 years!!

I've seen multiple cycles, mini-bull and mini-bear markets within the context of the long-term bear.

I remember my first "real job" as a back office supplier to Merrill Lynch in the late 90's walking into the brand new World Financial Center in the World Trade Center.

In my too-big suit from Century 21, I was a mini-baller, I thought... 22 years old, clueless, scared shitless, I never made it onto the trading floor...

Not once did I think I'd ever have a shot at working there...

Seven years later, I was broker at Merrill Lynch. Five years prior to that, the World Trade Center was annihilated. Four years after Merrill hired me, I had quit, gone to India, returned and was shorting their stock into oblivion.

Dream, reality, nightmare, void. Repeat.

I've enjoyed the ride: the 2003 free money dot.bounce, worked the 2007 glitch, traded the 2008 collapse, worked the 2009 run, the just happened 2010 flash crash, traded them all.

I am a student of Mandelbrot/ Taleb and chaos. I believe there is far more risk in markets than people believe. I believe the bell curve and all it's corresponding bullshit is inapplicable to anything that goes on here. So Modern Portfolio Theory, standard deviations and 99% of the Nobel Prize nonsense that comes out of Wall Street is a sales pitch and ridiculous.

But like I said, I can only speak in probabilities.

I have no fucking clue what will happen next...

My guess is this:

Big leg down. I believe the European banks are facing the same liquidity concerns the US banks were facing in 2008, overnight lending not happening and what-not. The Euro makes no sense, the markets know this.

Of course, anything can happen, the market can rally here, it's just robots trading against each other and they'll take it wherever they want because they're fucking robots. Also, the Fed/ECB could announce another trillion dollar rescue. What's another trillion at this point...?? And it's off to the races.

And I do believe there are great things happening in this country, but the debt overhang is too big. The math does not work. So what I'm saying is: if you own stocks AND YOU NEED THE MONEY ANY TIME IN THE NEXT YEAR, sell them, get out, you had a great bounce.

Run for the hills.

I want you to be successful, I want you to be happy. The stock market is not for you. Period.

Gold, Apple and some cash, that's it. We're gonna do a down and up. Hyperinflation is the end game I believe, but for now, play it safe, and I promise to do my best to get you back in when it's time

But at the end of the day, it's your money. Keep that in mind and you'll be fine.

There that's it, let's talk kundalini yoga now.

And forever.

BFFs

2010-05-11T11:28:00.000-07:00

Gold - 100 Oz (Comex) $1,235 Change +33.80

Enjoy Yourself

2010-05-08T15:13:00.000-07:00

Everything's Fine

2010-05-07T12:50:00.000-07:00

Nothing to see here. Carry on.

Market gyrations down 1000 up 700 in 5 minutes are totally the new, new thing. No worries, mate.

Everything's fine.

Robots have taken over the Capital Markets. Skynet v. the three humans left trading. The Singularity is here.

So better to focus on Kundalini yoga. Or focus on your inside game. Or build your bunker. Or open a vegan hot dog stand.

Or enjoy a deeply discounted trip to Europe.
I for one will focus on Kundalini yoga.

Kundalinis wear white because it attracts all the colors of the spectrum and has higher vibration/ aura.

People in LA wear white because:
a) we are not clinically depressed
b) we are all Kundalini yoga teachers
c) we are all aura sensitive
d) all of the above

The correct answer is d) all of the above.

Actual Human Interaction Might Make Sense At Some Point... Just Sayin'.

2010-04-30T18:50:00.000-07:00

Kundalini Woman

2010-04-29T20:45:00.000-07:00

This radiant earth being just taught the most fun yoga class I've had in several years, and believe me, I've had some fun fucking yoga classes in my lifetime. She may have the happiest energy I've ever felt in another radiant earth being.

We were doing nonstop crazy Kundalini breathing shit, and I could not stop smiling even though it was killing me.

I am high still, my sushumna nadi is f-cking alive again! Ridiculous.

Here is a little treat for you: the definition of sushumna straight out of mutha-f-ing wikipedia. You're welcome.

Sushumna (alternatively known as Susumna) Nadi connects the base chakra to the crown chakra. It is very important in Yoga and Tantra in general. Alternative medicine also refers to Sushumna sometimes. In Raja Yoga or Yoga of Patanjali, when the mind is quietened through Yama, Niyama, Asana and Pranayama the important state of Pratyahara begins. A person entering this state never complains of Dispersion of Mind. This is characterised by observing the movements/jerks in Sushumna, the central canal in the subtle body. The movements indicate the flow of Prana through the central canal and in the process, the sushumna makes the way for the ascent of Kundalini.

Pratyhara, Kundalini Woman, I love you!!

Feel good, feel alive, Sat Nam.

And enjoy vid 4:

India. Hot.

2010-04-23T18:20:00.000-07:00

This blog got its legs when it went from an options trading blog that no one read to an India travelogue that my mother read. The several months I was blessed to spend in the Mother Country still defines and propels me as it does many of my LA yoga brothers and sisters.

So I am super excited to be at the center of India and big media this weekend at The LA Indian Film Festival Shanti Vortex.

"Shanti Vortex" I added. When you Google it, feel free to subtract/add Shanti Vortex.

As I've written, India sucks.

And India is the greatest place you can be.

India is so fucking hard. India is the sweetest place on earth. India, you want to leave as soon as you arrive in Mumbai/ Delhi after your 24 hour flight. India is all you talk about when you're home.

The poverty disgusts you. The happiness makes you question your materialism. You question it still two years later...

They say in the West we are always looking at the guy ahead of us saying why can't I have that? In India the guy in the gutter sees the other guy further downstream and says thank you, thank you, thank you I'm not that guy.

The Indian economy is ripping. The India meme is full on. See Julia in Eat, Pray, Love this Summer. See Bollywood. See what comes after that...

See Oscar.

I wish you all a shanti weekend. If in LA, come see this movie with me.

And enjoy the vid.

Media Here or There

2010-04-17T19:10:00.000-07:00

Hello radiant earth beings. Namaste from planet Venice Beach.

Here is what is happening here and there. We are going inside, we are doing the vignettes as promised. Change comes inside out, so we start here and it gets out there. This is also my process, I thank you for letting me articulate and DO it here for you.

The vid here is being cut off on the right, so noted. The response here and on facebook has been kind so we will continue posting it here and there but obv they have a better platform for viewing it.

With that a few things to pay attention to:

1) Social Media/ Marketing is booming: no brainer: have something going on in this space to promote your personal brand. Facebook will continue to be one of the most important tools/ phenomena for the coming decade. However, not widely known: Be different and avoid over-selling/ over-exposure there or here. We don't wanna hear from you 10 times a day: why FB trumps Twitter.

2) The elite banking system which I've railed against for the past few years is starting to finally unravel with the Goldman Sachs Cuomo case. Thanks to Matt Taibbi, Gretchen Morgenson, Louise Story, Mike Lewis and most importantly to all the bloggers out there who kept at it, such that the zeitgest moved and pop media had to cover it.

Truth telling works. I have no illusions that Fab Fabrice will be the fall guy, but the truth is now widely known. IBanking is broken and kind of evil. Back to private firms, partnerships where accountability trumped under bus throwing.

3) The US is coming back. We will undoubtedly default; outright or via money printing, most likely the latter, but asset prices will rise, companies are crushing it like AAPL, and the Google move out of China, best move of all time, that stock goes much higher. Facebook, Twitter IPOs will push Tech higher. Our strategic default has already led to asset price inflation across the board. Where's the inflation? Right there, genius. Asset holders and wealth creators will prosper, middle class, poor will suffer per usual. But a growing economy will lift most boats.

4) Obama will have a major geopolitical crisis to deal with, and like the financial crisis, he may look like an idiot at first, and then be vindicated, he has proven way craftier that I gave him credit for (Cuomo is his guy). He will go down as an all time great and I will eat a lot of my recent words about him, but my vote for him will also be vindicated.

The invisible hand in the market is his. When he said buy stocks last March, he meant it, markets go higher until he says otherwise. Fat Tony (see Taleb) knows this.

5) The higher consciousness business is booming, be it yoga, holistic health, conscious media, clean energy or higher social utility media, you need to be in the space as a provider, shareholder or customer or all three.

6) Alternative banking is booming. Step in, be the bank, plenty of great projects to fund, traditional bankers sitting on their fat hands.

7) Hollywood is booming. Make a movie, bypass the studio (studios are like IBanks).

8) That's it. Enjoy the vid.

In Sane

2010-04-11T08:53:00.000-07:00

video coming late March/ early April

2010-03-06T17:06:00.000-08:00

Thank you for your patience. 2010 great year thus far. The time is now. This is it.

Will pick up the slack with more posts in the coming days.

Be well, be present.

Otherwise Kali will chop your fucking head off.

Happy New Year

2009-12-27T20:44:00.000-08:00

2009 be done.

Am working on some 2010 game changers...

That's fucking right. 2010 I am bringing a video series, vignettes really, because I love that word: vignettes, to the small screen.

They will be completely unrelated to finance, completely unrelated to the economy, completely unrelated to the external world, and will be focused exclusively, in totality on your inner world, your inside game, your internal locus, your heart center.

We will get that right or just a little bit righter, and from there, the other external stuff will fall into place, or just fall away, become irrelevant.

Opt in: inside. Opt out: outside. Opt in: optimism.

While you wait, see Avatar: message movie of the decade.

And here is a picture of Kali fucking Shiva.

Taleb Joins Me In Exile (via HuffPost)

2009-11-30T18:35:00.000-08:00

I don't write Econ/Finance posts anymore, I can't stomach it, and my hero, Nassim Taleb feels the same way. I'll let him do the talking, from today's Huffington Post:

Good Bye! The Reappointment Of Bernanke Is Too Much To Bear

What I am seeing and hearing on the news -- the reappointment of Bernanke -- is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn't even know he doesn't understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible -- as if we promoted every doctor who caused malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.

No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic quiet of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.

Bye,
Nassim

Amen.

Inductive Reasoning Fallacy

2009-11-23T18:55:00.000-08:00

A holiday lesson on thinking, straight from my idol Nassim Taleb:

A turkey lives 1000 days. Every day for 999 days the turkey is fed and fattened, eating a little more everyday.

Let's say for the sake of this piece that this turkey is a fantasy free-range turkey, not the traditional mass-produced, death-farmed, slaughterhouse, pig-boned, steroid special you will be eating this Thursday.

So from this turkey's perspective he is happier and happier every day, thinking to himself, "Wow, what a great life I have. Every day just gets better and better and every day I just get bigger and bigger!"

Day 1000. Chop. Thwack. Slaughter. Gutted.

Today has everything to do with yesterday, until it violently does not. Past performance is not indicative of future results. In other words, yesterday has nothing to do with the here and now.

And for that we can all be grateful!

Happy Thanksgiving all. Please keep the slaughterhouse product consumption to a minimum this year.

And don't be a turkey.

Pop.

2009-10-11T17:27:00.001-07:00

I'm gonna do my best to explain what's going on here on earth, and then after this post, I really mean it this time, no more finance posts.

There's a lot more interesting stuff going on out there which I can't wait to write about. I do thank you so much for spending time here and in my gratitude, I do feel an obligation to explain this one more time and then let it all go.

So as my final reportage, here you go:

After 25+ years of misfeasance, easy money at the Fed, we're broke, and going broker, we are fighting two illegal/ immoral wars, on our way to a third.

Peace Prize!

So, we had absolutely no money last year when the Banks blew up due to the incompetence ethos, survival of the slimiest, etc. But the oligarchy needed to get paid, so we had the bailouts when said banks indicated it would be the end of world if they could not pay bonuses.

It was!! Only good call they made in 20 years.

Yes, so not only are we run by corporations, but by failed corporations -from Mr. Obama on down.

Sigh... He has not made any difference despite my false hopes.

This is NOT Capitalism despite Michael Moore's wishes. This is not Socialism nor Communism either. Those models would imply we are redistributing wealth from rich to poor.

It's the opposite here. This is straight up banana republic.

Okay you get it already, no money here, bananaland, our balance sheet has trillions in debt we simply, arithmetically cannot pay.

So we will print it. We will create it out of paper and ink. That was okay way back when we had something of worth backing it, like gold.

And it was still good for a while after that when we were a production-based, non-consumer-based nation, as it was backed by the full faith and credit of the taxing power of the US Congress.

That used to mean something. Now it does not. So the printing to pay debts, coupled with the lack of real demand for said dollars will only lead to one outcome:

Hyperinflation and the likely dissolution (or major restructuring) of the United States.

Look at the stock markets, look at gold and other commodities. I made a mistake when I told you to sell US stocks 1000 points ago. You can hold anything as long as it's not US dollars. Pet rocks will go up in price in dollar terms.

(*Except your house. That credit-based asset will continue to plummet and basically ruin your life -Enjoy!)

So, my mistake, although I was prettay, prettay clear about holding gold or foreign stocks which both way outperformed US stocks this year.

If you followed my blog and did what the fuck I told you for the past two years, you are basically crushing it.

You're welcome. Gravy fucking train is over. I"m too bored with all this. You can always call me...

No, you cannot.

I still think the US stock market is the biggest stock bubble in history, but it is competing with the biggest asset bubble in history, that which dwarfs the stock market.

The deflationists look at the US fundamentals and rightfully see awfulness and much lower prices going forward. Like me, they see bankrupt companies like AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Fannie Mae, etc. lead the charge the higher, and shake their pointy heads.

They see the stock bubble but miss the biggest bubble of all time popping before their eyes.

And that bubble my friends, is the US Dollar.

Pop.

GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) $1050.90

2009-10-07T19:56:00.000-07:00

Dear Ben Bernanke, Thank you for being you.

Dear Barrack Obama, Thank you for not understanding math.

Dear Wall Street TARP Bankers, Thank you for taking up all the last few hundred spots in hell.

Dear US Congress, Thank you for your awesome spending.

Dear America, Thank you for sleeping.

Thank You For Playing

2009-09-08T21:22:00.000-07:00

Carry on, nothing to see here.

Please, no loud crying.

Gentle sobbing appropriate.

Manifest Volcker

2009-08-24T19:56:00.000-07:00

I've said this before and not at all lived up to it, but no more posts on finance/ the economy.

Done.

I've warned everyone like ten times in the last month, do not buy US stocks or mutual funds even if you have a 100 year time horizon.

And do not hold US dollars either. You will be engulfed in flames as your portfolio will be incinerated and the dollar collapses.

So that's it! Closed. No more negative posts, I am delighting in the chaos to be televised this Fall. I hope you are as well.

I am also done crushing Obama. He can still turn it around, he is smart enough. I believe he is re-appointing Bernanke such that the captain can be onboard for the final iceberg.

He will reverse course soon enough, probably before the end of the year and dismantle his entire econ team post dollar crisis.

The really-not-that-smart Repubs will sweep in 2010, but they will F it up almost immediately with some xenophobic, culturally conservative idiocy, and be re-swept back out in 2012.

Barry will be re-elected to term 2 having fired his economic generals like Lincoln did his army captains.

Volcker will take over at age 100 and that is when you can get long US stocks again.

All is well. It's all vibration anyway. As Abraham Hicks says, become a vibrational match to that which you want. You will never attract what you want by focusing on the lack of it.

Become a vibrational match to Volcker.

Manifest Volcker.

Clunker Please Don't Go

2009-08-20T22:16:00.001-07:00

We will look back at the Cash For Clunkers Era as the brief utopia before we were engulfed in flames.

Future history books will read as follows (in Mandarin):

Cash For Clunkers was a massive handout to the failing US car industry and lazy Americans that drove shit-boxes in response to Barack Obama's coddling of the US Banks.

As documented mostly in blogs of the era, the Banks (with the full backing of the Federal Reserve) successfully destroyed Capitalism while paying themselves enormous taxpayer funded bonuses.

Obama needed an opiate to dispel the notion that he was just another "Corporatist" (as coined by hard-core Republican Capitalist Frank Rich of the NYT). So he gave his obese citizens a $4500 voucher to buy a Toyota.

One of the first blogs to cover US Banker Satanism in 2007 was Yogatrader which went on to become the official blog of Communist California. Eventually the MSM caught wind of the rampant banker sociopathy. Here is right-wing extremist, Paul Krugman in the August 21, 2009 NYT:

"And then there’s the matter of the banks.

I don’t know if administration officials realize just how much damage they’ve done themselves with their kid-gloves treatment of the financial industry, just how badly the spectacle of government supported institutions paying giant bonuses is playing. But I’ve had many conversations with people who voted for Mr. Obama, yet dismiss the stimulus as a total waste of money. When I press them, it turns out that they’re really angry about the bailouts rather than the stimulus — but that’s a distinction lost on most voters."

This Banker Satanism torpedoed any chance of Obama achieving much needed US healthcare reform.

Obama lost the middle, and had to deal with death-panel crazies and 60 IQ US College graduates that wanted "government off their Medicare!"

So he doubled down on Clunkers until it ran out of money.

Of course, we all know Cash For Clunkers was the greatest fiddle performance of all time, as unbeknownst to the fiddler, Rome was completely engulfed in Dante's inferno.

And this of course is where glorious Communist China came to the rescue and saved the world.

As the second best US President of the 21rst century, Mr. Obama's legacy was complete.

Cash For Clunkers Is The New Internet!

2009-08-06T20:54:00.000-07:00

I am looking to go deeper in debt, prop up a failing industry and ruin the environment in 3 weeks time.

So I am very excited for the Cash For Clunkers program. I hope you will share in my excitement and partake in this new economy dynamism.

This is a very popular program which speaks to it's brilliance. Our Senators are brave to pass this bill. Brave and brainy!

I know Cash for Clunkers will save us. Do not even think about denying me my fucking Clunker voucher!!

You are either with the Clunkers or you are with the Terrorists.

...At least we are going up in flames quickly.

Cash For Clunkers Will Save Us

2009-08-03T19:29:00.000-07:00

The new economy pillar, Cash For Clunkers is the funniest economy- wrecking- scheme of all the new economy- wrecking- schemes!

Cash for Clunkers!! Just saying it makes me smile.

The Market, the S&P 500, meaning the biggest, bluest of blue chip American companies index is trading at a 700 earnings multiple.

The last time we had a multiple like this was dot.com mania Nasdaq 2000.

That ended well, I recall.

Speaking of bubbles, remember the new metrics being thrown around then, like "eyeballs" or "price to sales" ratio which eliminated the need for those companies to actually make money.

Same now, you'll hear the mainstream crazies talk about next year's "operating earnings" which equals projected earnings if we do not count all the bad stuff.

The good news is if you played ostrich-style financial management for the past 2 years and are just now able to look at your statements, you have the opportunity to extricate yourself from all US stocks at great prices.

It's conventional wisdom that the market is brutal and unfair.

That's not what I've seen however. At each pre-crash period, you had ample time to sell and get out if you were paying attention.

Subprime was in the news in 2006, you had over a year to figure out it was not "contained" per Ben Bernanke, before the first leg down, if you were curious.

Bear Stearns went down in March of 08, giving you 6 months to figure out every other investment bank was just like them, before the October crash, if you were curious.

The market gave you another shot to get out the first days of January this year, rallying because January means new beginnings!!

And here we are, August of 2009, S&P at 1000. Nothing fundamental has changed except trillions in taxpayer liability, even though the bad assets are still on the banks books, now marked to fantasy via new accounting rules.

Insiders are selling at a record clip, yet the same prognosticators who were bullish all the way down have declared victory over the Recession.

Hmmm... At the current job loss rate, everyone will be unemployed by 2011.

And our consumer credit economy is 70% dependent on us buying stupid shit we don't need.

But if you don't have a job, you can't get that bad-ass $2000 limit 18% APY Capital One card, so how the fuck we gonna borrow our way out of this debt mutha-fucking black-hole, bitch!

Hallelujah!!

Oh yes, the dollar continues it's collapse which temporarily props up all asset prices, so when you sell your US stocks, do not sit in US dollars. Buy gold, or sit in other currencies, or high yielding foreign shares.

Stay long US equities and the next leg down will wipe you out.

That's all. Enjoy your day.

CIT: Too Not-Goldman To Bail

2009-07-15T19:27:00.000-07:00

US Markets have reached their highest level of 2009 absurdity.

We are completely out of US stocks and taking some profits abroad. Some of our clients are up enormously and we are strongly suggesting hedging to all of them.

How bizarro world have things become? How disconnected are Markets from reality? Well, I would suggest even more so than last year at this time.

And since I'm generally lazy, here is what I wrote 1 year ago today, word for word (with added visuals) and the market at 11,239.

Because, amazingly (or not) nothing fundamental has "CHANGED", besides a few trillion in US taxpayer liabilities.

In short, get out of US stocks.

And enjoy:

Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Warning: This is a Finance Post
Yes, your eyes will surely glaze over, but here we go. Just a little FYI: Did anyone tell you we are in a full blown financial crisis. No, good, let me.

Background: We've had 25 years of massive, and I mean massive credit expansion, a raging bull market starting in roughly 1980 that went parabolic in '95 and is now reversing hard, unwinding in a major way.

What has prompted me to actually start writing about it is that we have people making it worse, thinking they're making it better. Barry Ritholtz explains it best here: If this fucking link doesn't work, Google his latest Seeking Alpha piece (Fed Fiddles as Rome Burns).

Anywells, our "officials" are now trying to somehow short circuit the short sellers, which prompted a massive rally today in the worst companies on the board -the banks. I can't go into how ridiculous this is, other than to say: government intervention rallies based on ending short selling are to be sold short, preferably naked.

And yes, "naked shorting" is actually a (great) finance term, Yeah, we're talking stocks here, I warned you already about that, did you look at the title? That said if you are sitting at home and decide to buy Puts with no pants on, more power to you. And if you're standing nude in the middle of your trading floor, you are way too cool to be reading this blog.

So the question is: do you want the band-aid off fast or would you like it to take 8 fucking years. We've chosen the latter, so guess what, you cannot be long stocks or buy a house for any reason other than wanting to light hundred dollar bills on fire until around 2012 which I think is when the world ends anyway.

Here it is. We need the market to clear. That means we need the indexes down hard, we need several of the dumbest banks to fail, we need Paul Volcker to come in and jack rates, end inflation and sure up the plummeting dollar.

The guys in charge now are so compromised, so lacking in credibility, yet they keep tinkering around trying to plug holes where there are none, because guess what?

THERE'S NO MORE DAM, it's gone baby gone, you (we) are so under water, and messing around with short sellers, trying to bail out another I-bank, socializing risk is both prolonging the pain and making it worse.

But they will continue to take asinine steps like they did today because it's in their DNA. It's the strand known as the: Let's Keep Fucking Around With This Hand-Grenade Gene.

So tinker on, play politics, help out your idiot banker friends, you might get few hundred more points, maybe even a thousand, hell anything's possible, you may even get another bubble. Tinker on my friends, you cannot help yourselves, I know.

But, one thing is certain. This tinkering. . .will end in tears.

Bank of America Accepts California IOUs As You Accept Bank Of America's IOUs In Never Ending Escher Economy Death Spiral

2009-07-01T21:14:00.000-07:00

I'll be back, we gave you the California BK warning on October 14th which gave you 8+ months to sell your municipal bonds. If you did not, please go cry in the corner.

But good of BofA to accept worthless IOU paper from us, as the US taxpayer (which includes a few Californians) accepted the worthless mortgage paper they wrote in exchange for TARP funds -soon to be worthless.

Luckily we have the US Treasury printing presses running full speed printing what will soon be worthless paper such that BofA can pay their executives top dollar, such that we can finally form a Zimbabwe like economy, based on the three new US economic pillars of:

1) money printing
2) obesity
3) cash for clunkers

And thank you to TARP banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs for buying up spot oil and putting the barrels on tankers in storage to earn the spread between spot and futures, thereby squeezing supply and increasing the price of gasoline, taxing the US citizen twice, one enormous nation-killer tax called TARP and one just really fucking annoying tax called Exxon.

Thank goodness we saved you!

Carry on here, nothing to see.

Crush The Flies

2009-06-22T20:52:00.001-07:00

Unemployment is skyrocketing yet we still have five too many banks, some that are paying enormous bonuses funded exclusively by the US taxpayer. The biggest heist in history.

Please, if you have any affiliation with a TARP bank, may you please commit hari kari or risk returning as a fly in your next lifetime.

This heist is common knowledge on the street and as the rest of humankind gets wind of it, Barry O. will have 2 choices. One, swat his Econ team of Geithner-Summers to their death like 2 giant bugs, or serve out his one term and join Jimmy Carter in the malaise hall of fame.

I voted for this guy?!

Fuck.

But, I still have hope he will come to his senses, and crush the flies.

Tyler Durden, Barry Ritholtz, Karl Denninger and a host of other bloggers have done a much better job on this meme, so I will direct you to them as I just don't have the energy to lay it all out here.

Bottom line: Barack Obama has been on the side of a small Wall Street oligarchy to the amazingly horrific detriment of the rest of the US population. Barack Obama is fucking the middle class, the poor, as well as the actual Capitalist hard working entrepreneur, to maintain the status quo gluttony of bankers like Ken Lewis, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein and Vikram Pandit.

It's a travesty, for the country and for the man himself, a total waste of talent.

But he's had enough time to figure it out, and guess what folks.

He's just not up to it.

What To Do, What To Do?

2009-05-31T18:35:00.000-07:00

So you are not a market participant. Good for you, although we're all market participants even if we own no stock, but that's another post.

So what can you do now to navigate the current malaise?

Well, if you work for a big corporation that is credit dependent and/or mass consumer focused, get ready to be fired.

No, just playing with you, a little job anxiety humor to start your Monday morning, better than coffee!

This is a great opportunity, go do what you love, be pro-active, stop sitting on your TARP ass, collecting a check, waiting to be fired, the height of misery.

Be an entreprenuer! Open a yoga studio.

See, when my best of friends, Govindas asked me last year if now was a good time to open a donation based yoga studio, which was the exact same time I was calling for a massive stock market crash, I answered him with a resounding YES!!

How is that, you may ask?

Well, any other business, involving anything other than gold cyanide capsules, I would have send No F-ing Way, and it would have been good advice. Shops that sell "stuff" are shutting down all over town, there are store-front vacancies on Main Street Venice/Santa Monica which was unheard of even last year.

But, big BUT, there is a demand for authentic experience, there is a demand for deeper meaning that was all but snuffed out during the materialism-fueled 80s and 90s, and a yoga studio with an established roster of teachers is a no brainer here in the yoga mecca of the world (Yes, west-side LA trumps India, ask the Indians.)

Not a yogi? Great, go volunteer in the countries that need it, dump your house/rental, leave the country for a bit, get some perspective, leave the box. If you just started a family, get help from your boomer parents who just blew this shit up. Go work in Africa for a bit and you'll become a yogi pretty quickly.

See we're programmed to believe otherwise, but you can do whatever you want if you stop chasing the paper for a year or two, they'll be plenty of time to resume the rat wheel when you return.

Nobody, nobody, not one died saying they wish they'd spent more time at work. Get out there, take a hike, go to the beach, re-connect with nature, make the connection of reverence and respect for the land, and even find your true calling in the environmental or alternative energy space.

That and the yoga/ consciousness/ holistic industry are the new, new things that will work here, vocations that you make a lifetime out of.

That or if you still have that raging Capitalist animal spirit, move to India, move to Asia. These tigers will have your Gordon Gekko on in a Mumbai minute!

And if you're local, visit the Bhakti Yoga Shala, you will love it. Bhakti means devotion. Bhakti is service. Go be of service not just to your family, but to your community and the world at large. It's a new era, consciousness is raising, I know you can sense it, even the skeptics can see it, if not feel it.

Be of service, you'll be fine.

Long Gay Marriage

2009-05-27T22:18:00.000-07:00

Oh yeah.

If you're against gay marriage, you're on the wrong side of the trade.

And in a few years you'll have to explain why you were on the same side as this maniac/ douchebag.

You don't want to have to explain that to your kid.

Live and let live.

Don't be a douche.

Hello Happy People

2009-05-27T21:13:00.000-07:00

Happy with your 401k bounce from the abyss?

Me too.

See this chart? It's a chart of the US Dollar v. a basket of foreign currencies, most of which are in Europe, which is in even worse shape than here.

So basically whatever gains you've had in your US stock and bond holdings, subtract 10% and that's your real return.

If you want to compare your returns v. a strong commodity currency like the Australian Dollar subtract 20%.

Happy now?

Great. Carry on.

Humiliation Is The New Enlightenment!

2009-05-14T19:50:00.000-07:00

Hello radiant earth beings. Are you enjoying the end of Capitalism? Congratulations to Karl Marx, I should have read you in high school.

You see, we think we know, we think we know, we think we know. . .

And we know nothing. Not a fucking thing. If we could just keep that straight, that we are more or less clueless as to basically everything, we maybe, just maybe, can prevent ourselves from paying $70 for a tomato in 2011.

And to those that still think they know what the fuck they are doing despite all evidence to the contrary, to the Federal Reserve, to the current and previous administrations, a special shout out to ya! Booyah!

And a special shout out to the TARP bank oligarchy for continuing to suck the lifeblood out of the free enterprise system. You'll be able to tell your grandchildren you ended it.

And by "it", I mean everything.

Humble. Humility. Humiliation.

One of the greatest life lessons ever is that every time, and I mean every single time I have become too big for my britches, I am swatted down and squashed like gnat on an elephant's ass.

What is it they say in China,"The nail that stands out gets hammered down?" Yes, something like that.

That's the new ethos. So un-American, so collectivist, yet so exactly of the moment, and China will overtake us in very short order because of it. And deservedly so.

The American ethos of consumer narcissism is fucking done.

Good riddance, we were gagging on it.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go waterboard myself.

Long Crying

2009-04-26T18:49:00.000-07:00

Greetings white earthlings.

WARNING: No, not swine flu. Although please be careful with your (non-vegan) bacon consumption from mass produced slaughterhouses this week. And please keep your usual animal flesh gorging to neanderthalic minimums until this blows over.

Warning regarding the following piece: It is about money, so move on to the Huffington Post or ramdass.org if you are already mid-yawn.

I promise my next piece will be a vegan cookie recipe or a sitar youtube.

This is how we are trading armageddon and why (with a style nod to the Gartman letter, and giving you the benefit of the doubt in knowing we are simply talking/pumping our positions).

We are still very long of gold. We gave you this trade at the beginning of the year in the low $800s, it has been way up at $1000, back down again, and is now at $917. You made money on this trade if you did it. If not, you still have time. We have a silver miner as well to ride this train. You want the rationale, please scroll back (Jan+Feb).

We are long of Canadian Energy Trusts some yielding over 20%. Do you believe the banker bailout money printing bonanza will not cause commodity price inflation? Do you believe that Nat Gas will stay below $3.50 and Crude will stay below $50 next year? Do you believe that the US is better run than Canada? If yes to any of the above, do not do this trade.

We are long of China domestic/non-export companies. We are long of Indian companies of the same ilk. Have you been to India? Have you been to China? If not, move there and do this trade. If yes, move there and do this trade.

We are short of US equities as a hedge via DXD. We are short the worst companies of all time, the banks via FAZ. We don't care how many trillions the USG puts in the black hole, every one of these banks should be trading below $5 like any other government entity with endless losses and gains derived from government supported Enron Accounting.

Endless trough feeding via TARP, and FDIC borrowing at the artificial rate, you'd think these firms would be money machines.

You'd be wrong. Raging executive incompetence and a general public that has the nerve to actually understand the fleecing, will render these firms nationalized and trading near zero. Liquidate the shareholders, liquidate the bondholders, goodnight Citi, goodnight BofA. We are short Goldman Sachs via puts. We believe Goldman Sachs, besides being amazingly tone deaf, is the biggest menace to this country since Dennis the Menace.

We are short Commercial Real Estate/Simon Property Group via puts. George Soros is in this trade (short CRE). We are short Real Estate in general through SRS. If you do not understand derivatives stay away from the short trades. But we can recommend you sell your house and rent.

We are long Brazil via EWZ and some calls. We are long BIDU via calls on earnings tomorrow but may sell them before. We are also long of grains (non-animal Ags) through Chinese and Australian Ag firms. All positions are trade-able based on circumstances, meaning we can change our mind any time. If we do, we'll let you know.

We understand everything is still connected and a big selloff here will ripple everywhere.

We are net long, here.

We don't like bonds, not enough yield. We love Apple and probably always will but have no position in it.

We are long of Gay Marriage with a short position in Marriage In General as a hedge.

We are short of Torture with a long position in Gentle Slapping as a hedge.

We are long of Crying, unhedged.
We wish you luck in your trading.

Equanimity

2009-04-12T20:25:00.000-07:00

There is a Zen koan of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years.

One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. “Such bad luck,” they said sympathetically.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. “How wonderful,” the neighbors exclaimed.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son’s leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out.

“Maybe yes, maybe no,” said the farmer. . .

All-Time Greatest Vid To Get Your Weekend ON!!

2009-04-03T07:18:00.000-07:00

US Auto Worker v. Wall Street Douchebag. Obama Goes With The Douche.

2009-03-30T21:36:00.000-07:00

That seems fair.

And very progressive.

My Usual Weekend Party

2009-03-28T20:16:00.000-07:00

TARP II or Where The Fuck Is Volcker?

2009-03-23T21:54:00.000-07:00

GD II was caused by bankers making ass-ton huge bets on housing with other people's money.

Bets with no downside, as they got paid at year end on paper profits. Heads they win, tails you lose.

THE GEITHNER SOLUTION: Let bankers make ass-ton huge bets on housing with other people's money.

Bets with no downside as the taxpayer will put up 85+% non-recourse style. Meaning heads they win tails you lose.

How this ends in non-crying is difficult to fathom. Even Krugman hates it.

This combined with last week's Bernanke-fest print-athon effectively ends the Obama administration.

Nice +500 though.

I've seen this movie before. . . like 18 times.

It's called Greater Fool.

Guess who the fool is?

Federales Buy Own Bonds In Greatest-Ever Money-Printing Escher-Extravaganza!!

2009-03-18T20:25:00.000-07:00

Gold reverses +$60 in sixty seconds.

We should just do this forever.

Borrow fake money from ourselves until the end of time.

Just like magic!

But worse.

Revolutionary Road

2009-03-13T19:45:00.000-07:00

Tom Friedman, who I enjoy, had a piece a few days ago about the severity of the economic crisis and how Barry O needed to focus on it to the exclusion of all else.

I agree.

He ended his piece however, with the following:

Which is why I wake up every morning hoping to read this story: “President Obama announced today that he had invited the country’s 20 leading bankers, 20 leading industrialists, 20 top market economists and the Democratic and Republican leaders in the House and Senate to join him and his team at Camp David. ‘We will not come down from the mountain until we have forged a common, transparent strategy for getting us out of this banking crisis,’ the president said, as he boarded his helicopter.”

Sometimes I comment on these things, I really do not know why. Here's what I said:

"great piece Tom, big fan but you lost us on the final paragraph:

20 leading bankers = oxymoron.

20 leading industrialists = not American

20 leading economists = did not see this coming and perpetuated it.

bring in outside the boxers: Roubini, Schiff, Taleb, Volcker, Soros, Steve Jobs and non-beltway Wall Street types and we can solve this, the guys he/ you would have in the room right now, just aren't up to it."

— Brian, Los Angeles

People liked it. As a matter of fact it was the second most Reader Recommended comment at 487 recommendations. #1 was the usual partisan "all Republicans are awful" job, so not bad.

And so I feel pretty good about popular sentiment here, the idea that we get it while the Washington Wall Steet axis, including the MSM still clearly does not.

Then a couple days ago, I was hearing about the Slow Money Movement on the radio. Yes, it was NPR. Go ahead, make your own joke about the NYT, yoga and NPR. I was however, not drinking a latte at the time.

Any way, the point is, I see a revolution coming, hopefully peaceful, hopefully with enough people getting it within the system that the machine is not completely upended.

If it is upended, well then, we'll deal with it.

More on Slow Money next time. Have a great weekend all.

I'm going off the grid.

Survivalist training.

Citi 1 Dolla, Dolla Bill or Panic Attacks are Useful

2009-03-05T13:31:00.000-08:00

"Dick, it's Dubya, can I get borrow on a million shares of Citi? Yes, cool man, cool!!

Thanks man, you were the best Vice ever!

Okay, now take it and sell it.

Yeah, if Obama's buying here, I'm a seller.

And hey man, don't tell the Prince but, this Sucker's going down!!!"

Best 8 Minutes Ever

2009-03-05T07:19:00.000-08:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

Citi $1.50 (One Fiddy) or 'Don't Panic' Again or 'Stress Testing' is Stressful

2009-02-27T16:26:00.001-08:00

Yes, once again if you had panicked and sold all your stock at any point in the last 12 years, you'd be richer than you are today holding the equities bag of death.

Our Government is 'Stress Testing' the banks using the same mathematical models and assumptions the banks used to destroy mankind.

Still, no one up there heard of Nassim Taleb?

Yes, of course not.
The difference is: the first time, banks borrowed private money and levered up 40 to 1, paid themselves bonuses, and then destroyed mankind.

Whereas now, We The People are giving the same bankers our children's money, so they can lever it 20 to 1, and destroy mankind twice.

Just this time, without the bonuses, please. . .okay, okay, 500k is fine.

The good money after bad trade.
So as the market meanders down to 6k, to 5k, what can one do?

Enjoy, bc if you've been reading this blog you're out at 12-13k DJIA. If you are new here, welcome and panic as soon as possible.

And when you're done freaking out, buy gold. Silver too. Looks like a double.

Double Bubble, Barney Rubble.

Gary Bagley Cartoon via Barry Ritholtz

2009-02-17T21:12:00.000-08:00

Love the rocket.

Bring Back Bush! Bring Back Bush!

2009-02-12T18:25:00.000-08:00

"This suckers going down."

For sale here: dual-purpose gold cyanide capsules: $2000 per 1 oz. pill. Buy now!

Life part 2

2009-02-04T21:00:00.000-08:00

Wow, that last one was depressing.

Okay, let me get some tissues, dust myself off.

Mr. President, you've got the right tone, and are getting up to speed as fast as you can, I understand, so here's how we can get out of this:

Bring in guys like Peter Schiff, Nuriel Roubini, Nassim Taleb, Benoit Mandelbrot, George Soros who all basically saw this coming and know how the world works. They won't all agree on how to handle the problem, but they have no bias to save failing institutions, and have no connection to the failures of the past.

More importantly, they actually understand what is happening here.

Take drastic measures: Like my 3 Point Plan to Save Mankind from last year:

1) Stop All Bailouts. Every one, and what we've already started, claw it back.

2) Guarantee All Bank Deposits. No limit, and guarantee all money markets (Basically, nationalize the banks).

3) Cut Corporate Tax Rates To Zero.

Add a few more points:

4) Legalize Drugs: Regulate and Tax

5) Adopt The T. Boone Pickens Clean Energy Plan -market centric, not government subsidy centric.

6) Tax Oil

7) Flat Income Tax

8) Commit to some sort of loose currency peg to gold = dollar strength.

This will piss everyone off and save the Union.

Yes, we can!

Death part 1

2009-02-04T19:10:00.000-08:00

The entire NYT Editorial Board and therefore the rest of the MSM has taken the baton on the Banker Bonus Bailout Bonanza, so thankfully we are done there.

Here's what's next:

Total meltdown.

Hello Barry. The stimulus bill is a complete disaster, too small, yet pork-laden. Welcome to Washington.

Also Barack, I think the idea going forward is to appoint outsiders to all cabinet posts, outsiders that pay taxes. There is nothing gained by having the Washington-Wall Street Axis-of-Evil types on your staff.

Much more importantly though, you are completely inside the box with your economic advisors.

There are two distinct schools of economic thought regarding macro policy, yet you only have one viewpoint represented, ad infinitum.

I expected better of you. I know you are open and connected so please hear this:

The Keynesian school of which all your guys subscribe says monetary activism, i.e. the relentless printing of money (fiat currency, mind you) can control and soften the business cycle.

But there is another school, a more practical, and even yogic school, called the Austrian School.

It is called the Austrian School because it was formulated by Arnold Schwarzenegger. . .
No, that last statement is completely false.

The Austrian School says that cycles, namely the business cycle is inevitable like the seasons, the ebb and flow of life so to speak. We collectively get excessively greedy, in this case an easy credit 25 year bull market, and then the bubble bursts and we become excessively fearful -a process only a few months old.

And the Austrian School says that we need the shake-out, we need the dislocation, we need the pain, to be able to make the eventual transition from fear to hope. When we try to deny the pain by pumping money into the system, we simply prolong the disease.

In other words, the Austrian School says that by intervening in the seasons, we just prolong the Winter.

But, here's what's worse, even the Keynesians like Bernanke and Krugman believe this stimulus will be too small anyway. . .

So, a gentle "What the fuck?' may be in order.

And, I'm not even sure Keynes would support what we are doing right now. Here's why. In Keynes time, we were savers, and our country produced tangible goods that other countries bought. Today, everyone is in deep debt, and our best export is incredibly bad financial advice.

So in Keynes'day, we had much to back up our debts and currency. Today, nothing but air and obesity food product, so there is an absolute danger in printing money like this.

This is not a case of just throwing the kitchen sink at the problem, and saying, "Hey, well we did our best." and walking away knowing that the cycle will eventually reverse anyway.

This is gonna make things so much worse because we will have no way to pay this bill, other than to continue printing money, which could lead to, no joke, the break-up of the Union. In fact, if we do not reverse course, this will happen.

Maybe this is for the best.

More to cover, next post.

Trading Desk Survivor

2009-01-23T19:28:00.000-08:00

Hey, that whole new job thing I'm doing right now, the precious metals and all that. . .

Well, I survived Round 1 of the carnage, but might not make Round 2 of Trading Desk Survivor, so before I get canned, let me make the bull case for gold, before I get so angry at my firm, I can't make a rational call on it.

I think it may be the single greatest trading opportunity since Google in 05.

Great Britain and Ireland are near collapse, Citi and B of A are effectively nationalized as the bailout money given them has exceeded their market caps.

And there is a broadening disconnect between the futures/ETFs and the demand for the hard asset, as people do not want the paper. I am seeing this firsthand.

Keep in mind, Gold Spot is now over $900 on a day when the dollar STRENGTHENED, which is very bullish, as dollar weakness (soon to come) usually means gold strength and vice versa, so when gold moves up on a strong dollar day, the market is telling you something.

See, the ETF, GLD, is run by Street-Tracks which as far as I know is fine, but the major silver ETF is run by Barclays, which like Great Britain and the GB Pound is on the verge of collapse.

The global financial system is beyond repair without major dollar devaluation, that's okay, we need to reconstruct a better system anywho, something resembling the barter system would be cool.

. . .and we just had a massive earthquake here, which is awesome. Either that or a terrorist attack on my building, which will be par for the course in 09.

Basically, we are in deep, the only place to be is in gold.

Happy trades!

Also, my buddy Matty (pictured above) is a very cool dude. I knew him for months before I knew he was on TV. He's got a book coming out soon. You'll hear about it here.

And yes, I love you, Barack Hussein, you have some major problems on your economic team but that is a post for another time.

For now, yes we can!

Yes We Can

2009-01-19T21:13:00.000-08:00

More of This, Please. or Walk The Aisle.

2009-01-18T19:32:00.000-08:00

Before we get into "The Moment", of which I am very excited, let's first meditate on this guy.

On the way to work last week, my eyes teared up, mostly because I was going to work.

No, my eyes teared up as the NPR guy told how Chelsey B. "Sully" Sullenberger walked the aisle TWICE of the downed US Air Jet which he somehow landed on the Hudson River.

Walking the aisle making sure no one was left behind.

You see, he was the pilot of that plane, and he took responsibility for all his passengers.

He put their lives before his.

I doubt he makes more than 200k a year.

The contrast between this guy and any one of the bank CEOs is too grotesque a picture to contemplate for more than a few seconds, so we'll end it right here.

Fuck them, they are dinosaurs. This guy is the new, new thing.

Accountability, honor, valor, humility.

Walk the aisle.

Bailouts Going All Night Looooong!

2009-01-14T21:45:00.000-08:00

Bank of America at the trough for seconds.

"Help, I swallowed Merrill Lynch, and I can't get up!"

You slothful, bloated, lethargic bastard.

Why, oh why do you exist?

Three worst trades in history:

3) Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America buys Countrywide (2007).

2) Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America buys Merrill Lynch (2008).

1) The US taxpayer buys Bank of America (tonight).

All night long, all night, all night, all night loooong!!

Drunken Sailors, An Insult To Drunken Sailors

2009-01-12T19:51:00.000-08:00

Now that the TARP ibank bonus pool bonanza is being revealed in all it's glory. . . Congressional leaders are wailing about how awful it is.

Wailing, after ramming it through both houses like 2 months ago.

This is almost as awesome as wailing about how awful war is, a year after authorizing the war in Iraq by like 99 votes to 1 Kucinich.

Amazing.

D) It is written.

2009-01-11T20:29:00.000-08:00

$70 Tomato

2009-01-07T20:15:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year White People!!

Wow, we made it.

Okay, my posts in 2008 were, well, let's face it, my posts have been kind of depressing of late, what with GD II and all.

I hope that you were not made too sad, and that I kept you out of the stock market, or at least made you cry once if you are a banker.

But, this year, new beginnings!

No more sad stuff, just positive.

I for one am looking forward to hyper-inflation. It will be cool to buy a $70 tomato.

Also, I am now in the precious metals business after a 17 month rest period. Please know that this happened very quickly (like 2 weeks).

So, when I posted the Zimbabwe Currency in response to our light-speed-money-printing-bailout-bonanza, I had just begun the job search and had no positions in gold.

Then an opportunity arose that just about exactly reflected my take on the world, and I was swept up in it. Pure luck. Or I should say pure chance, because we never know what is good or bad luck until well after the fact.

If you know the Zen Koan, good for you.

So, just wanted to make that clear: the dog was wagging the tail here, and not vice versa, and you will always be made aware of my positions, and where my biases and financial incentives are at, in the moment, real time.

So, basically, now I have a very long position in Gold, Silver and Platinum.

Finally, I was wrong in my stock market 6k by Christmas call.

Sorry.

Not really.

Merry F-ing Christmas

2008-12-24T16:47:00.001-08:00

Send your own ElfYourself eCards

Everything Wrong, All The Time

2008-12-17T08:28:00.000-08:00

1) Create Zombie industries via nationalization. Check.

2) Sow the seeds of hyper-inflation via ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). Check.

3) Sow the seeds of public unrest via crony Corporatism. Check.

4) Prop up equity/ bond markets via Fed/Tarp tinkering (purchasing awful assets). Check.

5) While propping said markets, insure there is so much scandal/ impropriety (Madoff, ARS, MBS, IB bonuses, relentlessly dumb CNBC bulls, un-hedged hedge funds) that no sane person will ever invest in those markets again. Check.

6) Saddle Gen X/Y/Millennials/grandkids/great-grandkids/ great-great-grandkids with gazillions in debt, higher taxes and zero growth. Check.

7) Elect Congressional leaders with no understanding of economics, so we are steam-rolled by the cult of personality of Bernanke-san and Paulson Sachs. Check.

8) Happy talk. Check.

We are still a democracy.

The fault lies not "out there".

The Onion Still Best of Breed

2008-12-16T08:21:00.000-08:00

$700 Billion Bailout Celebrated With Lavish $800 Billion Executive Party

The Onion December 16, 2008 | Issue 44•51

Relieved CEOs were greeted by a life-size ice sculpture of the Taj Mahal.

GEORGE TOWN, CAYMAN ISLANDS—Amid the bleak backdrop of imminent economic collapse, worried observers got some good news last October when executives from the nation's top 10 failing companies celebrated the historic $700 billion government bailout with an ultra- extravagant $800 billion party aimed at restoring confidence and bolstering their resolve.

"It's never ideal for private corporations to rely on public funding, but we would not have been able to survive another week without letting loose and throwing this massive bash," Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain said aboard his newly purchased $22 million yacht, the Excelsior. "We can only hope it's not a case of too little too late."

Three thousand guests were reportedly flown on 750 separate private jets to the Caribbean, where they commemorated the last-minute financial aid package—which saved their companies from the subprime mortgage crisis that has left thousands of Americans without homes—with 4-tons of Beluga caviar, $250,000 bottles of vintage Dom Pérignon served over precious gems, a 36-hour fireworks display, an additional loan of $200 billion to cover the costs of the gala, and a private concert for each attendee with rock legend Rod Stewart.

Held October 4–7 on all three of the Cayman Islands, the historic economic-stimulus celebration, spokespeople said, sent an important signal to the world that Wall Street was weathering the crisis in style.

"I'm glad we were all humble enough to recognize that we couldn't do this on our own," said AIG CEO Edward Liddy, sitting in a hot tub filled with Cristal and seven dozen endangered-quail eggs. "Having come so close to disaster, it is crucial that I eat these 24-karat-gold-leaf-wrapped chocolate truffles to boost stockholder morale and show all the critics and naysayers that we are carrying on just as we always have."

"Do not worry, America," Liddy added. "It's business as usual at AIG."

In a sign of the new era of financial responsibility ushered in by the bailout, the CEOs estimated that they came in a full $100 billion under the party's projected $900 billion budget—a windfall they immediately reinvested in their companies' ailing executive-Christmas-bonus divisions.

Don't Believe the CNBC Hype

2008-12-08T14:34:00.000-08:00

I gave Paul Krugman a bit of a shot last post, so I'll let him describe the economic situation himself (via Reuters):

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Paul Krugman, winner of this year's Nobel economics prize, said on Monday that the world could face a Japan-style, decade-long slump.

Speaking in Stockholm where he will collect his 10 million Swedish crowns ($1.3 million) prize, U.S. economist Krugman again called on policy makers to spend liberally to cushion a withering global downturn.

"A scenario I fear is that we'll see, for the whole world, an equivalent of Japan's lost decade, the 1990s -- that we'll see a world of zero interest rates, deflation, no sign of recovery, and it will just go on for a very extended period," he told a news conference.

"And that's unfortunately very easy to see happen."

Krugman added that in his worst case scenario there would also be a series of extremely serious crises "in particular countries that are in big trouble."

He said there were already premonitions of economic and political crises in line with those in Argentina and Indonesia in the 1990s-early 2000s, particularly "in the European periphery."

Iceland and Latvia are among European countries that have been hit hard by the global financial crisis.

"We can easily be talking about a world economy that is depressed until 2011 and maybe beyond," Krugman said.

"If there's a safe place I can't see it."

Krugman is in the Swedish capital for the "Nobel Week," when laureates attend news conferences and events culminating with the prize ceremony and a gala dinner on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Anna Ringstrom; Editing by Victoria Main)

Nice call, but I guess what I'm not understanding is if this scenario is a good possibility then why are we doing the exact same thing as Japan in 1990 i.e. creating Zombie Banks.

Who is getting "cushioned" here?

The only cushion I see is under Lloyd Blankfein's fat ass.

Kamikaze Ben

2008-12-03T21:56:00.000-08:00

Hello.

We are in total self-destruct mode.

Federal Reserve Supreme Leader, Ben Bernanke is using one event: The Great Depression (hereby known as GD 1) as his template to kamikaze us into GD II.

It's based on his academic theory: that the problem with GD 1 was they didn't print enough money. Yeah, he wrote a fucking paper on it.

Rather than it being the excesses of the 1920s lead to the inevitable crash and decline, i.e. not fucking avoidable -it's physics, really.

Maybe he's right?

He's a lot smarter than me, and so is Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, who basically agrees with him.

But where does common sense come into play? Here's a few questions:

1) How is the excess credit problem resolved through easier credit?

2) If we need the banking sector to get smaller, how does propping up failing banks move us toward that end?

3) Does a single infinite-variable event from 80 years ago, provide us enough statistical evidence to make any decisions about the present?

4) Have you studied Japan's bank rescue?

5) Do you have your bandana on?

2008-12-01T08:15:00.000-08:00

cartoon by John Sherffius via the Ritholtz Big Picture blog.

Fuck

2008-11-26T19:59:00.000-08:00

FLASHBACK:

(Nov. 18, 2007. . .Besides walking around as the human ATM, I spent the majority of my time in what may be the greatest bar ever -Leopold's (also made famous by Shantaram). It was there last night, that I appeared on this supposedly huge TV show in Asia -Mondo Magic. Check your local AsiaTV listings. I think they may have me falling out of my chair.

Also, I have a very good friend there, Mahesh, who served me 3 nights in a row, and looked out for me like a brother. I met a Brit, 2 Aussies, a Philly girl, the manager for French Laundry, the crew of Mondo Magic, as well as the usual criminal element. Also, Mahesh is delivering a message for me to Mr. Roberts. Please ask for Mr. Mahesh if you go, he is class A.

FAST FORWARD TO PRESENT:

According to tonight's WSJ: "The Leopold restaurant, one of the most popular with foreign visitors to the city, was riddled with bullet holes and there were blood on the floor and shoes left by fleeing customers."

These maniacs were looking for Westerners,and they went to all the right places. Currently, we have a hostage situation, where Americans, Brits and Jews are being held. Biggest crisis since 9/11.

I have full confidence in both our President and President Elect here. This is your time, guys. I also have full confidence that the Indian police will go in guns blazing, no hesitation.

I have no confidence the fire will be put out. Bucket brigade. No water.

Likely, these killers were trained in Pakistan. They look very young. And no, you can't just bomb the shit out of villages. Doesn't work. We must get in there and build schools. That's the answer. It's not quick. It's not easy. It's just what's needed.

I pray for you, Mahesh.

Happy Thanksgiving.

3 Point Plan To Save Mankind

2008-11-25T18:13:00.000-08:00

1) Stop All Bailouts. Every one, and what we've already started, claw it back.

2) Guarantee All Bank Deposits. No limit, and guarantee all money markets.

3) Cut Corporate Tax Rates To Zero.

I really do not want to explain this plan. If you are of moderate intelligence, have a little bit of economics 101, and a little bit of common sense, you'll get it right away.

If not. . .oh fuck it, okay, basically this kills all the bad firms without touching Joe Public's cash savings.

This gives profitable firms like a 30%+ earnings boost. You'll see all the awful firms like Goldman, Citi, AIG, Morgan Stanley trading at zero, and firms that specialize in products NOT designed to destroy mankind trading much higher.

It's called Capitalism.

This plan has the added benefit of not bankrupting the country, and allows for your children to spend their formative years not eating each other.

What we are doing now is the opposite, throwing money at failing firms, solving our credit crisis with more credit and crony capitalism. Here's a similar idea, let's give the unibomber a cachet of WMD and tell him to build a park.

Take a breath, pause, and enjoy this: The firms most culpable for our current mess are the firms we have just bailed out.

Think about it.

Citi at the Trough

2008-11-24T06:57:00.002-08:00

For Seconds!

Big sloppy seconds.

Get your riot gear.

Both parties in the pocket of Bob Rubin, Chairmen of Citigroup: Clinton Treasurer/ Obama advisor.

Third party candidates needed.

Citi Never Sleeps, Citi Sleeps With Fishes

2008-11-21T07:28:00.000-08:00

Sorry, I was late with this one. Too many blow-ups to keep track.

This one. . .

kind of a biggie.

Too big to. . . er, bail?

Get some rest, Citi.

And more TV adverts, please.

Thank You For Your Service

2008-11-17T08:29:00.000-08:00

Fair and balanced, Goldman Sachs top brass are forgoing bonuses this year.

This awesome piece of PR was counter- balanced today by the not so big secret they've been "naked" shorting everything in sight, including their own clients.

For example, they helped California sell municipal bonds, raking in their usual bounty, then turned around and told their other clients to short sell those same bonds, driving up borrowing costs in California. This may cause a CA bankruptcy. No biggie. . .

Thank you for your help.

I wonder how Arnold feels about this?

Hank Paulson: Secret Wizard

2008-11-17T05:54:00.000-08:00

Michael Lewis, of Liar's Poker fame, another book recom- mendation, is a genius.

His end of Wall Street piece in Portfolio is a long but worthwhile read, and today's letter to Henry Paulson on Bloomberg is his usual hilarity:

As much as I admire all of your decisions I can’t help but notice that the main qualification of the bankers to whom you have been giving money, so that they might make smart loans, is that they have gone almost bankrupt by making stupid loans.

As your mind is subtle, I can only assume that you secretly believe that the American economy right now needs not smart loans, but more stupid ones -- and thus that you have targeted the bankers who have proven they can make them.

The most ridiculous thing is the geniuses at GS thought they could pull this off (The Bail Me Out Bro!! TARP 08) under the cover of night, like the Internets was some far off black magic voodoo tool, and no one would figure out what just happened.

The take away: 1) Don't live in a silo. 2) Genius drones are still drones, 3) Respect the wizard.

Lesson not learned.

Carry on looting.

3 Quickies

2008-11-14T10:29:00.000-08:00

1) Go see the movie Slumdog Millionaire this weekend. It may be the best movie you've seen in years.2) I'm done with cell phones. It's a new trend I'm starting.3) Market at 6K by Christmas.

Happy Holidays!

Damn, It Feels Patriotic Shorting Goldman

2008-11-10T10:05:00.000-08:00

Let's review: Credit unwind/ market tsunami makes the awful Ibank model obsolete.

US Treasury policy is hands off, laissez faire. So, Lehman Brothers goes BK, big deal, let them fail says US Treasury Head and Goldman Sachs alum, Henry Paulson.

Then. . . Uh oh, AIG is about to kick it. AIG is counter-party to trillions in defaults swaps with Goldman Sachs (GS). GS ticks below $100 and voila'. . .

TARP!! Mother of All Bailouts! Terror Alert Red! End of the World, we need to act right fucking now! Trillions to the worst companies on the block. Socialize those losses, baby. We must protect Wall Street bonuses, at all costs, for a better tomorrow. . .

And, as expected the taxpayer dollars went directly to the Ibank bonus pool. Now, in a normal earth world, the Ibank Supreme Leaders would have come out months ago, and said, "We are taking no bonuses this year, as a matter of fact we are taking NO COMP this year, or next, until this mess is sorted out."

But Banker-World is another place far removed from earth dwellers. I know, I was there, it is a special planet of delusion, denial and the still strong "not my bad" ethos.

We often borrow the old Wall Street axiom "this will end in tears" in describing most things financial. For everyone involved, including the big gun Democrats that supported this mother of all thefts, this TARP. . .

will end in wailing.

3 Parties, One Country

2008-11-06T08:20:00.000-08:00

Greatest trip ever to NYC. Went to several insane parties which is what you do in New York, did you forget? NYC is a bit less crowded, a lot more Euro, and for a second I thought it had lost it's edge.

But, I was re-enlightened when I saw an obese drunk gentleman in a rubber batman mask getting a solid beat-down by like a 60 year bar owner on Second Avenue. It was noon.

But enough violence, I wanna talk about 3 parties in particular.

Perhaps, most surprising to you is that election eve, I was at a Republican rally in suburban New Jersey. That's right, you heard me, Republican rally mutha-fucka!

It gets better.

One of my best bro-dogs, ran and won a City Council Seat as a Repub, and get this, I phone banked for him all day Monday, that's right, I was cold calling Sarah Palin fans all day. Awesome.

I'm bipartisan. Fuck off.

Okay, stop crying, on election day of course, I was at the Obama party in NYC Obama headquarters, which you might guess is in Harlem. That guess would be totally wrong, it's in Park Slope, Brooklyn, whitest place on earth. And yes, I did just make that up (not the white part, the HQ part).

Finally, and least surprising, I was at an awesome apolitical Halloween Party where the guests ranged from Ron Paul Stock Traders, to Ralph Nader Vegans, to Tyler Durden Nihilists, to mostly Not Giving a Fuck Americans.

Awesome parties all. And as an American, I want to rank them.

Whitest: Obama Party (landslide)

Most Diverse: Tyler Durden Party followed closely by the Repub Party

Most People There For the Free Food Only: Repub Party

Most Police: Repub Party

Most Criminals: Durden Party

Best Costumes: 3 way tie, yet only the Durden Party was intentionally for Halloween. The Obama Party beautifully decked as West Wing circa 1996. The Repub Party meticulously garbed as Joe The Plumber circa 2008.

Happiest: Durden Party

So this is officially the greatest country in the world. Where Firemen, EMTs and people that actually save people's lives in real life vote Republican, and the whitest people on earth go Democrat, and the best party of all is run by Tyler Durden.

An amazing time, an amazing place.

God bless America. Gobama, get going.

And. . . We're BACK, baby!! USA! USA! USA!!

Time To Put This Mutha-Fucka In Command

2008-10-29T08:49:00.000-07:00

Homestretch, Hope v. Fear -biggest election since the last one.

Intrade has the Obama contract at $85 (85%) which seems high, but closer to reality than polls or pundits: Landslide.

The idea is this: while I agree with my racist best friends back east on marginal taxes and all that, this whole thing is much bigger than marginal rates.

Marginal rates are a fucking joke compared to this mess.

And by the way, what kind of fucked up place have we become where we've socialized the richest people on earth (trillions to Wall Street), yet rail against socialization for the poor.

Just give me a little fucking consistency is all.

We are in dire straits here, worse than even the hyperbolic media tells us.

I give Obama a 4 out of 10 in his understanding of the economic mess. McCain gets a Blutowski, 0.0.

But, Obama has the right guys, namely Volcker, that give us a maybe 50-50 shot of pulling out of this at some point. More important, he's got the hope, the optimism, the idea that everyone still has got a shot here.

Without that last belief we are doomed, you can bring marginal rates to zero, but if Americans are miserably struggling, while bank shareholders and execs are bailed out, we'll have a no joke violent revolution by Christmas -and I'm not really into that.

Plus, I've got a shitload of clean energy call options.

Anywhoski, we'll get the Pres we deserve. Going to NYC, see you next week. If I offended you with this post, fuck off.

GW 8 more years!!

Mandelbrot & Taleb: The Opposite of Bullish

2008-10-21T19:39:00.000-07:00

Just saw my heroes, Benoit Mandelbrot of Chaos Theory/ Nobel fame, and Nassim Taleb of Black Swan mania, on Jim Lehrer.

They have more intellect in their pinkies than all of Wall Street and Washington combined -that's how intellect scales: fractal like the Mandelbrot set pictured.

Actually, I just made that up, intellect probably scales normal, then again. . . probably not. . .
Any who, 13 months ago in my 4th post ever (Sept 19, 2007), I recommended their books, Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets and Taleb's the Black Swan. I would also very much recommend Taleb's Fooled By Randomness.

They are mandatory reads for anyone who handles money. Of interest, when I sampled the 100 odd brokers and wholesalers I worked with at the now half-dead wire-house/ibank, no one had heard of them.

Because of General Laziness Syndrome and Ostrich Style Financial Statement Analysis, I will be writing ebook summations on all 3 books and selling them for a very reasonable price on my new site TBA.

So basically, the point of this whole bloated post is; they (M & T) were not very bullish.

Just thought I'd pass that along.

And maybe forget about owning AAPL.

bottled water, shotgun, canned tofu, machete, biohazard suit and $3000 MacBook Pro

2008-10-21T14:37:00.000-07:00

AAPL knocks it out. . .
again.

One of 3 stocks you can own into Armageddon Season.

Greatest Bloomberg Article Ever

2008-10-20T08:20:00.000-07:00

(thanks to Dealbreaker comments for the link, full article pasted)

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success (Update1)

By Katherine Burton

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew Lahde, the hedge-fund manager who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, said farewell to clients in a letter that thanks stupid traders for making him rich and ends with a plea to legalize marijuana.

Lahde, head of Santa Monica, California-based Lahde Capital Management LLC, told investors last month he was returning their cash because the risk of using credit derivatives -- his means of betting on the falling value of bonds and loans, including subprime mortgages -- was too risky given the weakness of the banks he was trading with.

``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''

Lahde, who managed about $80 million, told clients he'll be content to invest his own money, rather than taking cash from wealthy individuals and institutions and trying to amass a fortune worth hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

``I do not understand the legacy thing,'' he wrote. ``Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.''

Request for Soros

He said he'd spend his time repairing his health ``as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces at universities, and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.''

He also suggested that billionaire George Soros sponsor a forum in which ``great minds'' would come together to create a new system of government, as the current system ``is clearly broken.''

Lahde ended his letter with a plea for the increased use of hemp as an alternative source of food and energy that segued into a call for the legalization of marijuana.

``Hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products,'' he wrote. ``Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term.''

`Innocuous Plant'

He added, ``The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country.''

Lahde said the only reason marijuana remains illegal is because ``Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other addictive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers.''

Lahde graduated from Michigan State University with a degree in finance and holds an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles. He worked at Los Angeles-based hedge fund Dalton Investments LLC before founding his own firm two years ago with about $10 million.

Lahde wasn't available for comment. A woman at his firm, who asked not to be identified, confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 17, 2008 16:27 EDT

In My Face

2008-10-17T08:00:00.001-07:00

Ahhnold gets it done with the Munis.

album of the year

2008-10-16T19:23:00.000-07:00

Nonsense Terms (part 1)

2008-10-16T07:39:00.000-07:00

If your Financial Advisor or a CNBC pundit says any of the following nonsense words, run for the hills.

If your Financial Advisor is a CNBC pundit, cyanide capsules.

"market bottom"
"oversold"
"overbought"
"price to book"
"price to earnings"
"diversification"
"mutual fund"
"standard deviation"
"efficient markets"
"long-term investing"
"modern portfolio theory"
"Monte Carlo simulation"
"annuity"
"good as cash"
"variance"
"bell curve"
"don't panic"

Not At All Concealed Rage Vote Locked

2008-10-15T19:44:00.000-07:00

Holy moly.

I think he even scared Joe the Plumber.

Can I Interest You In Some Municipal Bonds?

2008-10-14T12:31:00.001-07:00

No.

Then, you must fight the bear!

CA BK?

I Guess We're All Convinced. . .

2008-10-14T12:21:00.000-07:00

JPM, BAC, GS, MS, WFC et al.

Fully owned subsidiaries of the USA.

This has got to be bullish, no?

Yes, no.

Don't Nationalize Me, Brahh!

2008-10-10T10:10:00.001-07:00

Too late.

Goodbye Capitalism.

Enjoy your weekend, all.

Blessings.

YT Greatest Fucking Hits Ever (Okay, 3 Months)

2008-10-10T00:44:00.000-07:00

July 16, 2008 DJIA 11,239 So the question is: do you want the band-aid off fast or would you like it to take 8 fucking years. We've chosen the latter, so guess what, you cannot be long stocks or buy a house for any reason other than wanting to light hundred dollar bills on fire until around 2012 which I think is when the world ends anyway.

Here it is. We need the market to clear. That means we need the indexes down hard, we need several of the dumbest banks to fail, we need Paul Volcker to come in and jack rates, end inflation and sure up the plummeting dollar.

The guys in charge now are so compromised, so lacking in credibility, yet they keep tinkering around trying to plug holes where there are none, because guess what?

THERE'S NO MORE DAM, it's gone baby gone, you (we) are so under water, and messing around with short sellers, trying to bail out another I-bank, socializing risk is both prolonging the pain and making it worse.

But they will continue to take asinine steps like they did today because it's in their DNA. It's the strand known as the: Let's Keep Fucking Around With This Hand-Grenade Gene.

So tinker on, play politics, help out your idiot banker friends, you might get few hundred more points, maybe even a thousand, hell anything's possible, you may even get another bubble. Tinker on my friends, you cannot help yourselves, I know.

But, one thing is certain. This tinkering. . .will end in tears.

Aug. 25, 2008 DJIA 11,386 So yeah, I'm still bullish on this country 20 years out. Still believe we have a wicked awakening upon us in the markets and perhaps a depression, but we'll come out of it. I think we'll be all right now. I think so because Michelle Obama just delivered 5 million votes.

Sept. 18 2008 DJIA 11,020 Yeah, it gets better. Hedge Funds are a huge part of the economy. These funds are enormous, like massive beyond even the banks, which all just went out of business btw. As these funds blow up, and they will blow up at lightening speed now, they will need to liquidate, and this unwind will make the last week seem like a walk down Main Street Santa Monica -you know, like after yoga class you float over to the vegan cafe, have an elixir, jump in the ocean, fly your new kite, but i digress. . .

. . .So, the good news is the Market will rally hard, I mean hundreds, maybe a thousand points. (Sept. 18-19 DJIA rallied 800+) This will be followed by lethargy.

Which will be followed by the biggest crash in the history.

Oct. 9, 2008 DJIA 8579
*Oct 6-10, 2008 DJIA & S&P 500: worst weeks in history

nice year

2008-10-09T11:28:00.000-07:00

gulp

2008-10-09T08:07:00.000-07:00

Hello White People

2008-10-07T13:42:00.000-07:00

In response to recent queries, and for those just now reading their 401k statements and weeping, let's do a review, shall we?

First, SEC Chair Chris Cox should be banned from the store. Yes, John McMaverick was right. For the proximate cause of the Market's recent 1500 point 3-week thrashing see here (from last month):

http://yogatrader.blogspot.com/2008/09/we-just-went-full-on-pakistan-style.html

For a broader exposition of the Market's 4500 point year long pantsing see here (from July):

http://yogatrader.blogspot.com/2008/07/warning-this-is-finance-post.html

Ugh!

Why, oh why can I not link here!? It's quite sad and making me melancholic, but I will keep working on it. In the meantime just fucking scroll backwards. Thanks. Keep it real.

(pic from www.stuffwhitepeoplelike.com -awesome)

Long Yen

2008-10-06T07:44:00.000-07:00

Emergency rate cut, anyone?

Bueller. . . ??

Bailout To Nowhere

2008-10-03T13:32:00.000-07:00

Pork Bailout Bill passed at 1:00 PM.

Market says thanks but no thanks.

Bridge To Brainwave

2008-10-02T18:29:00.000-07:00

This woman has no idea what she's talking about.

Carry on dancing with the stars.

Bailout Take 2

2008-10-01T18:40:00.001-07:00

The guy is Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs.

The plane is us.

Enjoy your Fruit Loops.

Lucky # 7

2008-09-29T14:49:00.000-07:00

Nice Flop

2008-09-23T07:40:00.000-07:00

WASHINGTON -- The Securities and Exchange Commission said shortly after midnight Monday that it would revise rules to curb short selling that it had issued just three days before.

The SEC's latest change of direction on short selling caught some market participants off guard and prompted criticism that the agency has miscalculated the impact of its rulemaking.

The SEC, in a release issued at 12:26 a.m. EST Monday, reversed a position it had taken Friday when it said that market makers couldn't short financial stocks after Friday. The new rules as of Monday: Those engaged in bona fide market making and hedging activity, including in derivative contracts, could continue to short.

(courtesy of thw WSJ via Dealbreaker)